I am looking at 2012 and big election. It is too close. here is how I see it in termes of what matters the Electoral College.
2012
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)
State Strong Soft Undecided Soft Strong
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Obama Obama Romney Romney
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)
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AK 0 0 0 0 3
AL 0 0 0 0 9
AR 0 0 0 6 0
AZ 0 0 0 11 0
CA 55 0 0 0 0
CO 0 0 9 0 0
CT 0 7 0 0 0
DC 3 0 0 0 0
DE 3 0 0 0 0
FL 0 0 0 29 0
GA 0 0 0 16 0
HI 4 0 0 0 0
IA 0 0 6 0 0
ID 0 0 0 0 4
IN 0 0 0 11 0
IL 20 0 0 0 0
KS 0 0 0 6 0
KY 0 0 0 8 0
LA 0 0 0 8 0
MA 0 11 0 0 0
MD 10 0 0 0 0
ME 0 0 4 0 0
MI 0 0 16 0 0
MN 10 0 0 0 0
MO 0 0 0 10 0
MS 6 0 0 0 0
MT 0 0 0 0 3
NC 0 0 0 15 0
ND 0 0 0 0 3
NE 0 0 0 5 0
NH 0 0 0 4 0
NM 0 5 0 0 0
NJ 14 0 0 0 0
NV 0 0 6 0 0
NY 29 0 0 0 0
OH 0 0 18 0 0
OK 0 0 0 0 7
OR 7 0 0 0 0
PA 0 20 0 0 0
RI 4 0 0 0 0
SC 0 0 0 0 9
SD 0 0 0 0 3
TN 0 0 0 0 11
TX 0 0 0 0 38
UT 0 0 0 0 6
VA 0 0 0 13 0
VT 3 0 0 0 0
WA 12 0 0 0 0
WI 0 0 10 0 0
WV 0 0 0 5 0
WY 0 0 0 0 3
Total 180 43 69 147 99
A B C D E
Total Electoral College is 538 / 270 wins / 269 Ties
I will let the numbers speak. Like it or not we are a divided nation. A few states will decided it most of all Ohio.