Llewellyn Park Man Handcuffed, Robbed at Gunpoint
Burglar allegedly snuck up on a 61-year-old West Orange resident as he parked his car in garage.
West Orange police are searching for a man who attempted to rob a 61-year-old Llewellyn Park homeowner with a semi-automatic handgun, officials said.
According to the police reports, the homeowner parked his car in his garage around 9:30 p.m. on Feb. 20 before getting out of the car and heading into his house. As he walked to his door, the burglar appeared with the gun.
The burglar then threatened the resident by pointing his gun at the homeowner’s head, police said. The homeowner was then handcuffed and forced to lie on the garage floor. The house key was then removed from the resident’s key ring.
When the homeowner told the burglar there was an alarm in the house, the man fled through an upstairs window, police said.
According to the report, the resident was able to break out of the handcuffs and call 9-1-1 from his cell phone. Police responded with a K-9 unit and tracked the burglar through the backyard, but the dog lost the scent.
The burglar is described as Hispanic, approximately 5-foot-10-inches tall and of average build. He was wearing a black ski mask, black sweatshirt and pants.
According to the report, the only items stolen were keys to the resident's house and car.
An investigation is continuing.
Gunny
6:32 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2013
7 days ago? And it's Breaking News now? Really?
Steven Serebrenik
6:32 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Dear Mr. Mayor, Dear Town council...
I believe it's time to figure out what we can do to keep the streets in the valley more safe.
Respectfully,
Thank you
A valley resident.
Gunny
7:50 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Steven,
I was under the impression Llewellyn Park was gated? With its own private patrol units? Or is it just basic security?
badbul
8:50 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Just your basic unarmed mall security.
Steven Serebrenik
9:55 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Llewellyn park is gated...I know that. There is a guard at the main Street entrance.
Ken
11:15 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Basic security at the gate. They do drive around some, but there's a lot of space in there, and it's probably quite possible to hop the fence in multiple places.
jose
8:22 am on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Hand cuffs ha, interesting.
RAK
8:25 am on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Llewellyn is gated in the front, off Main Street, but I'm pretty sure it is not gated at the back (if memory serves me right from when I went to the Edison house a few years ago). And it's not SECURITY security, it's a guy in a booth - we got in without issue just by saying where we were going, but you have full access to the neighborhood.
We bought in West Orange 8 years ago and it's gotten worse and worse - and the fact that this took 7 days to hit the Patch and the police response seems to be one of complete apathy disgusts me. Is this all we've come to expect of our town? Armed robberies in our own homes or at the cash machine? Our cars to be stolen from our private property? Sad sad sad. If this is how much the town has changed in just 8 years, I fear what the next 8 will bring.
Gary Englert
1:44 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
RAK
While crime happens everywhere, the simple fact remains that there is less crime than there was 8 years ago and half as much as there was 15 years ago.
If you perceive that "it's gotten worse and worse," it is probably due to the more immediate and widespread reporting of the crime that does occur...due to the Internet...rather than there actually being more crime.
To confirm what I'm telling you, the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports for West Orange can be viewed at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr
wohopeful
3:42 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Two year old crime reports do not reflect the reality of today and the fact that the increase in crime in West Orange is a reality. Those living in West Orange know all too well that crime is drastically up and we don't need to turn on our computers or connect to the internet to find that out.
Gary Englert
8:20 am on Sunday, March 3, 2013
wohopeful:
The reality over the last 16 years, up to and including today, is that crime is in general decline in all areas...violent crime in particular. While there was a spike in property crimes (burglaries, car thefts) in 2011, the crime rate is still essentially half of what it was in 1997...and no amount of your repeatedly saying that's not true will make it so.
jose
8:54 am on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Might as well worse than reading that has mark and unmark police every where and plain clothes all over town. Must be xD frustrating apend that much in a home then not be protected. Here there is robberies and all but then when you dig in on the story you'll notice that is always something more to it and also is a lot of people arm legaly so the illegally armed think twice before pulling a stunt like that,like the kids on the trail last year. Is true this news aren't right the people aren't feeling the protection. Yesterday i was in penn st. in the city in skip sec. My wife and i had a plain clothes detective asking if we was ok cause we was kinda confuse looking for the legal office at 401wash. and unmarked cars like i said hummm a lot.
Fiona Nicholls
2:14 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Why does it take a week for a news story to become breaking news!!!!
Ricky
4:16 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
One can only guess that it takes a week for these breaking crime reports to become news "... due to the more immediate and widespread reporting of the crime that does occur...due to the Internet." (as noted above).
Gary Englert
8:20 am on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Ricky:
There are exception to every rule and the fact that the reporting of this story was not a stellar example of "immediacy," it's still a given that far more people will hear about it, due to the Internet, than when the once weekly West Orange Chronicle was the only source of local news.
john anthony prignano
3:42 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Englert continues to "misrepresent " crime statistics .The number of reported crimes in West Orange in 1997 was 1686. The number of reported crimes in 2011 was 874. HOWEVER, the crime statistics for 1997 include domestic violence figures { 280 } and the number of bias crimes {3 } The figure of 874 for 2011 does NOT include these 2 categories, hence, using the same criteria as was used in 1997, the actual number of reported crimes for 2011 is 1157.So crime is not down "almost 50%" , unless you think a decrease of 31% is a decrease of "almost 50%" I don't.
David Peart
5:55 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Abandoning common sense for the moment, and taking everything you claim at face value, are you saying that a reduction of 31% isn't a significant one? What YOU fail to acknowledge is that prior to 1997, police had discretion in reporting domestic violence incidents that does not exist today. There was also a significant under-reporting of bias crimes. Where exactly do you get the figures for the added 283 combined domestic violence and bias incidents, or do you just assume that must be the case?
The figures I discovered cited 101 domestic violence incidents in WO for 2011.
http://www.njsp.org/info/ucr2011/pdf/2011_domestic_violence.pdf
Top right of page 26.
That same report shows 1 reported bias incident in WO for 2011.
http://www.njsp.org/info/ucr2011/pdf/2011a_bias_incident_rpt.pdf
Top right of page 21.
That would mean your guesstimate is off by 182 incidents for a grand total of 975 criminal incidents in 2011.
The sky certainly is not falling.
David Peart
5:55 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
Pardon me, the grand total would be 976 incidents in 2011.
john anthony prignano
7:15 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
David You tell me where I say 31% isn't a significant number. Where is that? I said that the figures for 2011 don't include bias crimes and domestic violence figures , like they did in 1997.I'm saying that Englert 's figure of about 50% is not correct by a long shot. Why didn't you take him to task when listed several incorrect crime statistics.That letter didn't have one correct crime statistic. Now, what the hell are you talking about ? "There was a significant under - reporting of bias crimes" And you know that how? You were personally involved in bias crime cases but didn't report them ? You know other cops who handled bias crimes and didn't report them? Did you know police officers who committed bias crimes but you didn't report them? You're saying that since 1997, police no longer have the discretion to not report domestic violence cases, and that, combined with a substantial increase in population, reported incidents of domestic violence in West Orange have decreased by 65%. Now David, where do I say the sky is falling ? Do you and I agree that Englert is misrepresenting crime statistics by a significant amount. If you don't think it's a "significant amount", can we agree he's misrepresenting crime statistics, period? And you know I've mentioned his behavior before.Thanks for correcting the error, but in the future, try not to respond with righteous indignation to things I never said or even suggested. As Sargent Joe Friday used to say;"Just the facts ma'am."
john anthony prignano
10:25 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
David, I meant "Thanks for correcting YOUR error."
David Peart
1:54 pm on Friday, March 1, 2013
Reality check for John, first of all the statement was offered in the form of a question. You certainly didn't acknowledge that it was a significant drop, so I have no idea what you're trying to say now. The point being that your 31% figure isn't close to correct either. Your assessment of how you believe crime statistics SHOULD BE calculated, doesn't make you more correct than Gary or anyone else. Clearly the DOJ disagrees, or domestic violence and bias reports would be included in those latest figures. The figures you declare are not 50% but 31% are actually closer to 44%. Take that fact as you may. The fact still remains that police had more discretion in reporting domestic violence incidents than they do today. There are also unit that specifically address bias incidents, making for more accurate reporting. That too is a fact. How do I know that you ask? I was part of that system. Care to tell us what your qualifications are to attempt to contradict what I know? Crime is down nationally from the 90's, so it doesn't surprise anyone who knows, that domestic violence is part of that trend. Your rant essentially says nothing more than you have a thing for Gary Englert,
Jeffles
7:41 pm on Thursday, February 28, 2013
There was an armed robbery outside our house just two nights ago. When I arrived home and first saw all the police, I asked one of the many officers what had happened and if I should be concerned. One young whip of a cop thought he was being clever by saying "Armed robbery. You think that's something to be concerned about?" Yes, a-hole. I do. And I don't appreciate your flip attitude about it. And whoever is saying crime is down and we only THINK its up because of the Internet is full of it. We have been living here for nine years and never heard of a single armed robbery in our neighborhood, but this latest one follows just two weeks on the heels of another one in broad daylight just two blocks from my son's bus stop. Maybe our town should stop putting up brand new traffic lights to replace all the perfectly fine existing ones, or not waste $300k on useless trams for the zoo/golf/rink area and start rehiring the police that were laid off.
Ken
9:17 am on Friday, March 1, 2013
Jeff, the town doesn't buy zoo/golf/arena items; that's the county. And the vast majority of traffic lights that I can think of offhand are at intersections involving county roads, not town-only ones, which I'm pretty sure also makes those the county's responsibility. Not saying more police wouldn't be a good thing (though I'm unsure if a realistically possible number of new hires could really make a difference in the types of crimes we're seeing), but complaining about county expenditures isn't going to help find those town dollars.
Also, what new traffic light?
Also, anyone know if the street crimes unit is making a dent yet? I hear lots of scanner traffic related to them making traffic stops and interviewing people they see on the street, which should at least in theory get word out to criminals that they're more likely to be noticed/stopped, which should in turn encourage them to go ply their trade elsewhere.
Jeffles
11:38 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Ken, the traffic lights are ALL the ones along main street and elsewhere that are painted black. Those are all new. Nearly every single light, lamppost, signal etc that had been working perfectly fine were replaced by near replicas, albeit painted black instead of raw steel. I can only hope that the decision was made because the new lights are more energy efficient, not because someone, somewhere decided they needed to spend the budget to justify what they're seeking for the following year. Thanks for the info about the tram though.
Gunny
1:27 am on Friday, March 1, 2013
Yea Jeff,
At the very least start and rehire as many as possible. I think that the people behind this are pointing fingers. If the element has infiltrated the tows people that hide in LP - you know it's a problem.
john anthony prignano
5:14 pm on Friday, March 1, 2013
The 2011 UCR {874 } does not include domestic violence figures and bias crimes. The 1997 UCR does. Using the same criteria as was used in 2011, the number of reported crimes in 1997 would have been 1403. Hey David, guess what, I disagree with you and the DOJ. If they arbitrarily decide to eliminate or redefine categories,they're free to do so. And I'm free to disagree with their clearly self - serving agenda. I think that stalking and luring and terrorism threats that are credible enough to cause the evacuations of buildings and endangering the welfare of minors and DUI convictions are very serious crimes. Maybe you and the DOJ don't. Where are THOSE statistics in the 2011 UCR or the 1997 UCR for that matter. David, here's the reality check; Just because the DOJ doesn't count or has stopped counting the numbers of certain crimes or they arbitrarily change the meanings of words and terms, doesn't mean those crimes have stopped occurring. Because DV and bias crimes aren't counted in 2011, does that mean those 283 incidents reported in 1997 didn't occur, or in retrospect their seriousness was overblown? You were part of a system that gave you discretion in reporting domestic violence incidents and bias incident reporting was inaccurate? Now, with mandatory reporting and a big increase in population, domestic violence incidents are DOWN about 65% from 1997 to 2011. Maybe the definition of DV in 1997 isn't the definition of DV in 2011. I'm not contradicting what you know
David Peart
6:23 pm on Friday, March 1, 2013
The reality is the numbers went down. The criteria for a DV report has not changed. As a matter of fact, police are required to take reports where they once were not required, as in the case of verbal disputes. I heard a story a few days ago where the responding officers were required to take a report because a family member called 911 to complain that her husband had purchased too much beer that week. Not that he was intoxicated, or even argumentative. This is what mandatory reporting and no discretion brings you. An increase in population only means an increase in criminal reports if those crimes are committed, and reported. The fact that you can't embrace the fact those numbers are down is your issue, not WO's problem. The fact is in 2011, the total for bias and DV incidents is 102, not 283, as you like to throw around as though misrepresenting the numbers will suddenly change that fact. No one is questioning the numbers from 1997, so what's your point? Who does it serve to eliminate DV numbers from the totals? I seriously doubt that 1-3 Bias reports impact the totals enough for you to make an argument, and the reasoning behind eliminating DV stats is obvious for anyone interested in seeing it absent an agenda. Why are you trying to make a comparison between 2011, and the 1997 DV and Bias crime numbers when there is a 181 incident difference? Your argument fails with that fact. Your "cause I say so" posture simply isn't going to work here.
john anthony prignano
5:14 pm on Friday, March 1, 2013
I'm asking you how do you know? Did you under - report bias crimes? How often did you use your discretion regarding domestic violence situations - Is that why they created bias incident units and mandatory reporting of domestic violence incidents - inaccurate reporting and too many serious incidents being ignored or swept under the rug? George Orwell, "1984" He who controls the past controls the present. He who controls the present controls the future." You want to know my qualifications? My qualifications are for me to know and for you to find out.
David Peart
6:23 pm on Friday, March 1, 2013
What I know is you don't know what you're talking about. What's clear is you have no idea what I'm talking about when I speak of the discretion responding officers once had in domestic violence complaints. Yes, bias complaints are more widely reported these days, as complainants once didn't believe their reports would be taken seriously. As generational distances grow between those who would engage in such acts, the incidents decline, thus the reports decline. No one in their right mind would attempt to suggest that it was easier to have Bias reports taken more seriously in the past, or that a perception existed that they would be.
Your disdain and defensive sarcasm is not substantiation for your otherwise indefensible positions.
john anthony prignano
8:20 am on Sunday, March 3, 2013
David Englert says there were 874 reported crimes in 2011. You say there were 976 reported crimes in 2011. Are both those numbers correct?
David Peart
9:29 am on Thursday, March 7, 2013
John, What I said is by the formula YOU insist reflects a more accurate picture of crime, the numbers would be 976 in 2011. Still a significant drop from the 1686 incidents they were being compared to from 1997. Your need to offer false narratives only exposes the weakness of your argument, as well as their grossly suspect intent.
john anthony prignano
8:20 am on Sunday, March 3, 2013
These excerpts are from an article dated December 30, 2010. The title of the article is "Domestic Disturbance Calls Are the Deadliest For Officers " - "Last year more officers nationwide were shot answering domestic - disturbance calls than any other type of call, according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Fund" Retired police officer David Peart writes; "I seriously doubt that 1 -3 Bias reports impact the total enough for you to make an argument, and that the reasoning behind eliminating DV stats is obvious for anyone interested in seeing it absent an agenda."
David Peart
9:29 am on Thursday, March 7, 2013
John, Is there a point in any of that nonsensical attempt to contradict my factual statement? DV incident reports are still mandatory today, and they still were not always mandatory. DV incident calls are the deadliest for responding officers. Every cop knows that domestic dispute radio runs and pick ups can be volatile, so what's your point? What does that have to do with the fact that what were once referred to as Family Dispute calls, did not always require that the responding officer file a report? The numbers were still higher before, the numbers are still down nationally, and you still have yet to substantiate any of your assertions. None of those facts change with your apparently desperate attempts to make points where there are none.
john anthony prignano
8:20 am on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Memorial Fund*
JF
10:07 am on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Hey, i think your car just got stolen. Stop arguing the nonsense numbers and get out in your crime ravaged neighborhoods and do something beneficial.
Tom
1:22 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Hey JF
That can't be possible! Don't you know that the crime rate is down since the 90s?!
And if it did happen we should just appreciate that the crime rate is down Since the 90s regardless of how is reported And recorded!
And oh yeah I forgot this one, it's the Internet's fault!
john anthony prignano
3:39 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Tom Englert says there were 874 reported crimes in 2011. David Peart says there were 976.They're both right, but it's very likely one of them is wrong on how they arrived at their total. Mr. Peart also states there is now mandatory reporting of domestic violence incidents.There has been an increase in the population of West Orange. Gary Englert and Mayor/Police Director Parisi, among others, say the increase in crime in West Orange is partly attributable to the bad economy. Parisi is the Police Director, after all. Now combine all those factors, and the reported incidents of domestic violence in 2011 were DOWN about 65% from the 1997 total. Look at the very large number and types of very serious crimes that have been reported on PATCH that will never appear in the. Uniform Crime Report.
john anthony prignano
4:50 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Just a short time ago,I was able to look at the Uniform Crime Report for West Orange going back to 1996. Felony possession of a dangerous controlled substance, possession of a dangerous controlled substance with intent to distribute, selling drugs, purchasing drugs, buying and/or selling drugs in a Drug - Free School Zone, where are those statistics., I think , as I do, U C R intelligence is being insulted.
Gary Englert
2:51 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Tom:
Just because a crime, or two, happens in proximity of one individual and/or he happens to have some specific awareness of a crime (or any number of them), is no evidence at all that crime is increasing; it only speaks to the individuals awareness of that crime...and the more widespread awareness of the crime that does occur is as a result of the Internet.
The simple fact remains that (and any parsing of words/numbers notwithstanding) there is approximately half as much crime as there was 15 years ago...period.
Mock these assertions all you'd like but, they are factual and can't be disproved.
Tom G.
8:43 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
@Gary - Exactly. It's funny how every time people hear about a crime they automatically assume crime is "on the rise". People need to accept that a certain level of crime will always occur. Just because an individual becomes aware of that crime or is somehow personally affected is not indicative of any trend.
Jeffles
11:42 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Crime may be down as of 15 years ago. I'll give you that. But is it down or up from 9 years ago? In other words, 15 years ago, crime might have been at an all time high for this area. But if things improved over time, and people like me began moving in to town in the mid 2000s because things seemed hunky dorey, then to our experiences, crime IS on the rise. As I said in a previous post, in nine years time there had been no armed robberies in my neighborhood. Now there've been two in just a couple weeks. In nine years being here, I've never once been awoken in the middle of the night by a police helicopter doing search patterns over our house. The internet has been around for longer than nine years, so it's difficult for me to accept your argument that i'm only now "just becoming aware of it because of the internet"
john anthony prignano
12:04 am on Monday, March 4, 2013
No less an authority than David Peart says that there were 976 criminal incidents in 2011.That number includes 1 bias incident and 101 domestic violence incidents. I have a question .If the UCR doesn't list crimes like arson, terrorism threats that compel the authorities to have buildings evacuated, luring, and endangering the welfare of a child, does that mean these incidents didn't happen? Or could it mean that they did happen, but the powers - that - be don't regard them as incidents that are serious enough to be included in the Uniform Crime Report?
Tom
8:43 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
"a crime or two" your words...you remind me of another Gary...Gary Busey!
Gary Englert
11:38 pm on Sunday, March 3, 2013
Tom:
Say what you will but, the UCRs are the official and verifiable record of crimes that occur in our community and the fact that the number of incidents has declined significantly is manifest.
Go to the FBI's website, study the documents and educate yourself.
Any assertion that these reports are inaccurate and/or do not reflect the reportable criminal activity in our community is without basis in fact.
Gary Englert
9:18 am on Monday, March 4, 2013
Jeff T:
Please go to the Federal Bureau of Investigation's website and access the the Township's Uniform Crime Reports, as they will confirm that crime has been steadily declining for years, violent crimes in particular.
There was an uptick in property crimes (burglaries, auto thefts) in 2011 and those number dropped the following year.
While the Internet has been around for a while, the proloiferation of local media outlets (The Patch and Alternative Press) is new and I don't think either of those covering West Orange is yet 3 years old.
Until such organizations exisited, nobody on the Internet was specifically covering local news so, yes, more people are hearing about what crime does occur, far more quickly, because of the Internet.
West Orange is not Dodge City and never has been but, crime occurs here as it does everywhere...and it includes violent and heinous crimes too, just like everywhere else.
There's still less of it that there ever was just more of what's left being reported more broadly and quickly.
Tom
11:18 pm on Monday, March 4, 2013
West Orange is not Dodge City and never has been but, crime occurs here as it does everywhere...and it includes violent and heinous crimes too, just like everywhere else.
Gary your above statement is ridiculous. Crime does not happen everywhere the same way it is happening in West Orange now.
Gary Englert
12:06 am on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Tom:
What's ridiculous is someone hiding behind a screen name deriding the entirely factual pronouncements of someone who isn't.
Crime does happen everywhere and West Orange certainly has its share but, any assertion that it has risen precpitously, or is out of control, has no basis in fact.
Crime in West Orange has been steadily decreasing since 1997...period.
Tom
8:54 am on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Gary
My name is Tom.
The reports you refer to are not worth the paper they are printed on or the site they are posted on.
Armed robbery and violent crime is on the rise in West Orange and it is unacceptable.
We don't need to blame the Internet for our awareness or claim that these sorts of crimes happen everywhere...because they DON'T
We need to be vigilant in reporting suspicious activities and people and our Police need to experiment with new methods to combat the recent violent crime surge.
Gary Englert
9:21 am on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Tom:
While your given name well be Tom, the absence of a surname renders you unidentifiable and, therefore, anonymous.
Your assertions that the crimes that occur in West Orange are so unique that such things happen nowhere else, and that the UCRs are not an accurate accounting of the Township's actual experience, are nothing but delusional nonsense.
Do you honestly believe that our 100 man police force, its hierarchy, county, state and federal law enforcement are all conspiring to fudge these numbers?
They most certainly are not and I would challenge you to make your case if you believe they are...and good luck with that!
john anthony prignano
5:45 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Tom The number of reported crimes in West Orange for 2011 has been adjusted from 874 to 976. Can, you imagine, very serious illegal acts that have been reported just on Patch such as luring[s], terrorism threats that compel the authorities to order buildings evacuated, endangering the welfare of a minor, DUI et al DON'T qualify for the Uniform Crime Report.
Gary Englert
6:02 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Scott (anonymously hilarious):
As my service to Assemblyman McKeon is unpaid and voluntary, my time is my own to do with as I please; made all the more productive since the advent of smart cell phones, iPads, etc., and engaging in a dialogue here is no heavy lift, nor is it time consuming.
I need not analyze, investigate and/or second guess the Township's Uniform Crime Reports as I know the men running the department, respect them as the educated, competent and dedicated law enforcement professionals that they are...and fully trust that they're not cooking the books.
Again, those of you suggesting that they are need to support your allegations; it's not up to me to refute them when universally accepted data already exists. If you've got something better, and/or with more gravitas, bring it on.
Rather than "shooting the messenger," the thrust of most of my posts is that people should rely on scientific method when examining any situation and not fall victim to irrational fears based on very subjective and unsubstantiated personal opinion.
The fact that you and the rest of your ilk continue to post this nonsensical "the sky is falling" crap carries absolutely no weight...and even less so since none of you have enough courage of conviction to put a name, face or reputation behind the opinions.
The same can't be said of me.
Ralph Di Zio
10:06 am on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
There appears to have been an increase in crime involving guns since July of 2012. While overall crime may be down, incidents that involve guns in our community is what most of our residents are concerned about. Most people don't care what was the average for crime in the mid-90's. They are comparing gun incidents to more recent months/ years.
After all our mayor came out last summer touting a 20 percent drop in the township’s overall crime rate for the first six months of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011.....If it's OK for the mayor to compare 6 month increments it's more than OK for the taxpayers to do so. The more recent data shows the trend line that residents care about. I think we can all be happy that overall crime is down, but we shouldn't dismiss recent trends.....especially gun crimes
HMV
12:59 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
There is a principle in comp sci known as garbage-in-garbage-out. The UCR stats are only as good as the voluntary reports sent to FBI. Due to errors, nonreporting, misreporting, or downgrading of crimes (stemming from departmental or political pressure) the UCRs are not completely representative of reality. Does the FBI audit or validate the data in any way to assure the accuracy of reporting? Is there any penalty imposed on a local agency for underreporting or misreporting?
Say, for example, a city launches a marketing campaign to attract businesses and homebuyers after a layoff has cut the police force. Might there be some political pressure to underreport or misclassify certain crimes under to demostrate low crime numbers? There have been numerous reports (NYT, Village Voice, Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News) about the manner in which crime statistics reported to the FBI have been manipulated. Google "UCR misreporting".
Violent crime in West Orange is increasing and no amount of deflection by changing the subject to Tom's anonymity or repeating what the UCR says will change that. Enough with the "don't believe your own lying eyes".
Status Quo
9:01 am on Friday, March 8, 2013
"in order to demonstrate low crime"* (typos)
Status Quo
3:20 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
in ORDER to DEMONSTRATE low crime ** (there - fixed it for ya).
Gary Englert
3:55 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
HMV:
Any citizen wishing to take the time and effort to do so can file an OPRA request for the relevant police reports( for a specified period of time and crime), and then compare them with the numbers reported on the Township's UCRs.
Anecdotal information and/or a news report from one media outlet or another is scant evidence that fudging these reports is widespread, let alone that it's being done in West Orange.
There is, however, potentially quite significant reason for the over reporting of crime as it would tend to bolster police requests for more manpower, better pay, benefits, equipment, working conditions, etc., as it is law enforcement professionals who compile the reports.
The bottom line is you need to prove your premise as the generally acceped data (the UCRs) simply don't support it.
Scott
5:45 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Gary Englert: (hilarious)
While you, as a "legislative aide" to John McKeon obviously have an abundance of free time (evidenced by no fewer than 205 PAGES -- not COMMENTS, PAGES -- of comments† under your Patch profile), many other people who have fulltime private-sector employment do not. The fact that you keep repeating the same crock in the comment section of every article on Patch does not make it so. Your strange need to respond to every comment, to minimize other people's concerns, and to attack the messenger is duly noted.
If you've filed the OPRA request and done the independent analysis that supports your repetitious claims, please share it along with your methodology. Otherwise, your opinion carries no more weight than anyone else's does. If your neighborhood hasn't been hit yet, just wait for it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
†http://westorange.patch.com/users/gary-englert/comments?page=205 (it may be 206 pages by now)
HMV
9:01 am on Friday, March 8, 2013
There is a principle in comp sci known as GIGO. The UCR stats are only as good as the voluntary reports sent to FBI. Due to errors, nonreporting, misreporting, or downgrading of crimes (stemming from departmental or political pressure) the UCRs are not completely representative of reality. Does the FBI audit or validate the data in any way to assure the accuracy of reporting? Is there any penalty imposed on a local agency for underreporting or misreporting?
Say, for example, a city launches a marketing campaign to attract businesses and homebuyers after a layoff has cut the police force. Might there be some political pressure to underreport or misclassify certain crimes under to demostrate low crime numbers? There have been numerous reports (NYT, Village Voice, Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News) about the manner in which crime statistics reported to the FBI have been manipulated. Google "UCR misreporting".
Violent crime in West Orange is increasing and no amount of deflection by changing the subject to Tom's anonymity or repeating what the UCR says will change that. Enough with the "don't believe your own lying eyes".
Gary Englert
9:31 pm on Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Scott (anonymously hilarious):
My service as a Legislative Aide is as an unpaid volunteer and the advent of smart phones, iPads and the like have made engagin in dialogue on the Internet far from time consuming.
Never having been much of a conspiracy theorist, I have no reason to question the professional ethic and competency of the leadership of the WOPD, as they are decent, educated and dedicated men who I know and am confident aren't cooking the books.
Your saying they do doesn't make it so and it's incumbent upon you (and others of your similarly inclined ilk) to prove the allegation that they are...and your strange need to cower behind a screen name and deride someone refuting nonsense is duly noted as well.